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The changing spotlight in the global economy

With all the attention on Dubai this December and then on Greece now, the focus has shifted to countries and their debt and deficit levels. Six-seven months ago, this was not a major source of concern as economies around the globe were ‘allowed’ by economists/ analysts/ observers to dilute fiscal policy to drive growth. Now, you have ‘government solvency’ back into the wider discussion on economic stability. In a week, both Portugal and Spain have been forced to unveil spending cuts in order to calm the markets while broader plans are being devised in these and other ‘fiscally ill’ countries in the Eurozone (like Italy and Ireland) to tackle rising deficits and bring down debt levels.

For me, sharp market reaction to fiscal health of countries is a bit disturbing cause then it brings into focus some (other) important economies in the world with very high levels of debt – namely Japan, the US and the UK. With fiscal health always a matter of concern for some emerging economies also, disproportionate reaction from markets would serve to force central bankers/ fiscal authorities to rein in loose policy across the globe much sooner than might be necessary. Though improving fiscal health and reducing the overall debt burden of the economy serves to improve economic health and hence growth in the long-term, what I fear is the over-reaction component of the market. It is not as if the market was not aware of Spain, Ireland and Portugal. It is what the Greece trigger has done to them is important. And hence the caution against market panic rendering huge ‘insolvency’ pressures on economies that are either recovering slowly or on the path to recovery. This could pour cold water on a yet nascent global recovery (please ignore IMF figures – they manage to revise it always!!!!)

The caution notwithstanding, the beauty of the market mechanism is that through pressures on prices (be it bonds, CDS, equities), countries who have avoided making tough structural reforms on government budgets, economic competitiveness and data transparency have been forced to take notice. So, in Greece where it has been pointed out that about 1/3^rd of taxable revenues go untaxed you have tough talk on increasing efficiency of the tax mechanism even as the government has vowed to reduce the size (both in value and volume) of the public sector. The same is true for other countries as well. If they do not, at one time or the other, the market will punish - which sometimes could be very harsh (read Lehmann and AIG).

I hope His Excellency Makhtoum is listening!

Is the feeling of helplessness for real?

There are times when I feel helpless, when words do not come out, when actions fail to take shape, when dreams just remain dreams, when nightmares never fail to enact their gory theatrics, when emotions fail to take external form or even when they do not in the manifestation that is deemed appropriate for external scrutiny. Is this another one of my reluctant rambling? Yes, maybe it is. Or it could just be one in a series of truths that I have finally had the courage to accept and hence explore with self-perceived honesty. Helplessness is an amazing feeling. It robs the mightiest man of his strength, it robs the conjuror of his wand, its fails the devout through uncouth thoughts, it devours the confidence of the worldly wise; it even spurs the brave (yet cowardly) to contemplate making a forced peace with the creator.

So, then you ask – why is it that you feel helpless? Reflecting a sense of vulnerability perhaps, it is easy to shrug it off or to retort – “it is easy to ask, it is so much difficult to answer”. Nevertheless, you wish you knew, or even if you knew, wish you were brave enough to accept, and even if you were brave enough to accept, wish you had the courage to counter it. The feeling of helplessness - is it trivial in your eyes yet mighty enough to direct your being to a sense of resigned indignity, or is the most important thing that holds up your march toward fulfilling your nascent naïve ambitions.

Oh no! Yet again, I veer from the topic and bring in the reverie of queries and comparisons that mark the bottomless depth prior to a self-glorified emotional conquest. And then, almost like a rule enforced by the omnipotent being, as I try to think and react to the myriad thought processes flooding and exploring the dark contours of my brain, I begin to ask – “Is it me or is it my shadow?” Wish somebody could answer and wish so hard that it would be me and not my shadow.

Every time I see a movie in Mumbai, I display my patriotism

Forgive my patriotism – which is at an abysmally low level – not that I don’t love my country but which seems to be at an all time low considering the fact that I am almost always criticizing the vociferous zeal of my fellow countrymen (life is always relative I guess – no absolutes involved). Why is there forced patriotism in this country? In every aspect – you go to see TERMINATOR – and you are told to get up to play the national anthem. You are told to rise before any goddamn movie and the national anthem is played. What kind of forced patriotism is this? I want to know whether every Indian rises to the national anthem when they see the Republic Day celebrations at their homes. Do all the guys who speak of nationalism and imbibing the spirit of the country – do all of them pay taxes – do all those who force others to show patriotism ever do so themselves? Why is it that if we go for the movies, the national anthem has to be played before each movie? Why movies alone? Why isn’t the national anthem being played before each day in office, each day in school, each day before a serial is shown on TV, each day when we have food, before breakfast, lunch or dinner? Or if it is difficult to have such a kind of routine in personal life, why not have the anthem played every time we start a day in office, every time a shop opens, each time a politician stands to make a speech. In fact, every day before we start our day, it should begin with the national anthem. Why only movies? Why not other places? And if it is only movies that we restrict ourselves to then it is the classic case where we are seeking to advertise a perverted form of patriotism that is hollow and without any content. Maybe the powers that be who forced it on the hapless movie theatres wanted to seek the maximum attention considering that murder, rape and arson are the best means to fortify your position in public life. At a time when free speech is at its lowest ebb in this country, I wonder what times are round about the corner. Maybe a signed oath of allegiance is next.

In response to Zeb’s query

Well, in case all of you who are unfortunate enough to visit my blog and worse still read it, here is what Zeb asked…….. I like to alternate between Zeb and Shahzeb though I don’t know why I do it – maybe it makes me look cool either directly or indirectly – because people might think “oh! Cool name – must be a cool guy – nice group of friends Akrur has – he is one cool guy”. The failed micro-economist in me cannot help but mention the “Transitivity Assumption”….. Oh damn!!! I almost always veer off and before I do it again here’s what Shahzeb asked “When people from outside come to visit my city – read Mumbai (strictly not “Bombay” – I don’t want to be lynched) – what do I show them?”… I am proud to say I have the answer. “Show them the best sights of any city in India – heaps of rubbish and varieties of crap”. So, even as I face the threat of being labeled a cynic, I can’t help but reply to all the people in the country who think we are developing real fast (real high-rises, malls, rising salaries, corporate lingo including the most preferable “F-word” and just f@#$ing forget about the poverty….) -----

“LET IT RAIN FOR THIRTY MINUTES”

In thirty minutes of rain, the entire city blooms and lets the beholder sink in the “stink”. Rubbish heaps galore, drains overloaded, piles of crap all over. So Zeb, next time you want to know what to show people when they come to visit Mumbai – show them the rubbish heaps – show them the various varieties of crap that you can see on the street – all colors and all sizes glistening due to the water from the rains – show them the dirt in India’s financial centre – the waterlogged street from a thirty minute downpour – can any other city match ours? This is what we have achieved and God knows what would happen when Manmohan Singh’s vision of Mumbai being the world’s next big financial hub comes true. It could even turn out to be a tourist attraction like Venice with its waterlogged streets – maybe we would have waterlogged streets without the rains as well. In that case Mumbai would however have to fight it out real hard with other cities like Guwahati (I am sure to be the next target of the ULFA), Kolkata (the Bongs wouldn’t like this one bit) and many others. But, then Mumbai has a number of aces (or maybe asses) up its sleeve – don’t think too much ….no, not just Bollywood – we have “terror tourism” as well (Ramu’s thirst of “blood and gore” might be a direct consequence of his using his hands too much off late – the nymphs seem to be deserting him). But, that we will reserve for later (btw expert opinion on terrorism coming up soon!!!). Now back to the rains, the crap and the rubbish. So, hail Mumbai!! Bring it on ye Gods – I mean the rains and we will retaliate with all that we have got (both inside our body and outside it and make it Mumbai Shining).

So, Zeb – u got your answer? And to those patriots (of the country/ region/ state/ city/ municipality/ locality/ cooperative housing society) who are planning to teach me a few lessons in love for the mother/ fatherland, get Zeb as well. He is the one who asks the questions (No prisoner’s dilemma involved here – Zeb’s one of my best buddies, so I’m not gonna have it being slaughtered alone)

Is it me or is it my shadow?

I haven't written for a long time. Somehow the words do not come out. Somehow there is always a debate within me and the negative force always manages to assert itself. Now, as I grope in the darkness of words, I have this dark suspicion that it might be a spirit inside me who tells me to pen a few lines while there is another one who dissuades. I have realized that yet again I need to choose sides in this war between the two spirits and for once I have decided to switch allegiance to the one who believes rather than the one who strikes down my dreams. There is a strange feeling of elation - a sense of achievement in this minor act - maybe a foundation of the road to salvation .......... or is it that I am excited for nothing? But then I cannot be fooled on this one. I can see the shades of positiveness and even if I would have been blind I would still have smelt it. This new found belief is a very minor one. But it is one that fills me with hope and I know that I will live and fight for it.

waiting for the sun

to all those devotees of perfect eternity, i have just arrived....